BE WARY OF DRAWING INACCURATE CONCLUSIONS

An article in the May 26 Seattle Post Intelligencer heralded that Seattle home prices had declined to what they were in 2005 citing the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

This index surveys metropolitan areas of 20 cities across the U.S. As a result the analysis is in very broad stokes using very broad analysis.

Another article in the P.I. On May 27 compared the S&P index results with the Federal Housing Finance Agency figures which showed a discrepancy in price declines.

Well of COURSE there will be discrepancies, the index are calculated based on different geographic criteria.

Broad analysis and trends painted with too big a brush in this market, do not paint an accurate picture. Micro-markets are proving to very very wide apart in trends which average to figures that are not representative of either area. In just analyzing the median home prices for the areas of Seattle, Sammamish and Woodinville, you are faced with these figures:

Seattle: $480K in August 2008 declined $50K to $430K in February 2009 and now stabilizing in the $435-440K range for the past several weeks.

Sammamish was at $740K in December 2008, declined $81K to $659K and appears to be stabilizing in that range.

Woodinville shows $670K in November 2008 down $70K to $600K in mid February 2009 and recovering somewhat to $640K

As you can see, there is a steady decline in one area, a slight rebound from the low in the Seattle market and a more significant rebound in the Woodinville market.

This is typical for many areas where some neighborhoods such as Vallejo or Tracy in The San Francisco Bay Area has been hard hit on pricing and sales are now active, bundled in with San Francisco where declines were not as great and there has been more stability in sales volume. Yet the indexes have them bundled together canceling out the true picture of situation in both markets.

Take any conclusions drawn from these indexes with several grains of salt. They are gross averages and will not accurately reflect the market conditions on any specific community.

WHAT DOES ADRIAN BELTRE HAVE IN COMMON WITH SEATTLE REAL ESTATE?

Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners has been in a slump and was given a day off by the club.

Is this how he has always been?

Of course not!

In 2001 he batted a .203 average with only 6 RBIs but in '04 he was .314 with 36 RBIs.

Such is the Seattle Real Estate Market.

The stats in the past decade have shown great performance but right now the numbers aren't looking so good.

Median home prices have dropped $50,000 over the past year to a current low of $437,500 while average days on the market have gone up from an average of 85 to the current 155 with no change in sight. However, properties available on the market has seen a tick downward from a high of about 4,300 at the end of April.

What's happening in other markets? Some are in the same shape, (Los Angeles currently has over 14,000 foreclosures!) some of turning around (San Bernadino is having a great increase in the number of property sales) , and some are defining a bottom. The key factor is secure job situations and new home buyers stepping in to take advantage of low prices and interest rates. Some of the hardest hit are showing the fastest recovery from a bottom.

That obviously has not been happening yet in Seattle.

Seattle currently shows over 4,300 houses on the market and there are about 1,200 foreclosures currently on the rolls.

Real estate agents, lenders, financial institutions and local governments in many communities have seen the trend to foreclosures and short sales and have streamlined the process out of necessity. This in turn has spurred multiple offers and overbidding on the low prices properties.

Beltre can and will turn around his streak, and it is up the the job market and local industry to set up to the plate to turn around the real estate market as is happening in so many other communities.